Tuesday, October 16, 2012

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For manufacturers, the chief concern is soft new orders, particularly from the euro zone.

The HSBC report showed new orders overall and new export orders falling at their fastest pace since March 2009, helping drag output back into contraction after a more hopeful July.

Finished stocks are at a record high and backlog of orders at the lowest since January 2009.

"The current slowdown is caused by both cyclical and structural factors," said Zhu Baoliang, chief economist at top government think-tank State Information Centre, adding that further monetary easing would do little to counter the slowdown.

"The manufacturing sector is undermined by the destocking process."

The government PMI showed new orders falling for the fourth month in a row. Export orders were falling, but the sub index stabilized at 46.6 compared with July.

DIFFERENCES

While there are parallels now with the global financial crisis, there are also key differences that help explain why policymakers are less aggressive in trying to stimulate the economy. Most critical in China's case is employment.

In contrast to heavy job cuts during the winter of 2008-2009, employment has held up reasonably well, assuaging fears of social unrest in a year when the Communist Party is aiming for stability as it conducts a once-in-a-decade leadership change that will see President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao replaced.

"I think we should also look at the employment situation, which has yet to show any big problems.. we haven't seen big layoffs," said Zhu of the State Information Centre.

Beijing launched its stimulus package during the global financial crisis after at least 20 million migrant jobs were axed in a matter of months as global trade froze,nike free run 3 women.

Major exports,fake uggs for sale, including China, Japan and South Korea, are feeling the pinch of weakening trade, but not to the same extent as the global financial crisis.

Policy could change in China if employment begins to show signs of consistent strain. The official PMI employment sub-index showed a third month of contraction in August, slipping to 49.1.

The employment sub-index for the HSBC survey -- whose private-sector respondents are more likely to react quickly in hiring and firing -- reached 47,fake watches wholesale.6, its lowest point since March 2009 and its sixth month below 50.

Economic growth has weakened for six straight quarters in this latest down cycle. It did so for seven straight quarters during the global financial crisis before turning course to pick up, Thomson Reuters data shows.

If history is a measure, that suggests growth will ease again in the third quarter and start to rebound in the fourth quarter.

DELAYED RECOVERY

Beijing is moving cautiously in trying to support the economy in what it calls a "prudent" policy stance, for fear of re-igniting property and inflation risks.

Still, its policies so far have shown no significant sign of arresting the slide in the economy's growth. Indeed, analysts are cutting their expectations for the economy further in the wake of July's economic data and the PMIs.
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